Aaron Rodgers: What Comes First, 400 TD Passes or 100 Picks?

Aaron throwing a TD pass vs. the Raiders

When the Green Bay Packers defeated the Oakland Raiders 42-24 this past Sunday at Lambeau Field, quarterback Aaron Rodgers of the Packers accomplished five things.

One, he became the fastest quarterback to throw for 350 career touchdown passes in NFL history. Two, Rodgers became the first Packers QB to ever have a perfect 158.3 passer rating in a game, as he threw five touchdown passes without a pick for 429 yards versus the Raiders.

Three, No. 12 has put himself right in the middle of the discussion about being named a contender for being the MVP of of the league in 2019, as he has thrown 13 touchdown passes versus just two picks for 2,019 yards in seven games. That adds up to a passer rating of 103.7.

Four, Rodgers received the game ball from his head coach Matt LaFleur, as he is starting to master the offensive scheme of his first-year head coach.

Five, and most importantly, Rodgers led the Packers to another win making the team 6-1, which keeps them one game ahead of the suddenly hot Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North.

Next comes a battle on Sunday night against the 5-2 Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs will be without the NFL MVP of 2018, quarterback Patrick Mahomes II, who is out of the game due to a dislocated knee cap.

If history is a roadmap about how Rodgers will do against the Chiefs, it appears that the former Cal Bear will have another stellar game.

In his career against Kansas City, Rodgers is 1-1 and has thrown six touchdown passes vs. zero picks for 568 yards. That adds up to a passer rating of 113.3.

Plus, looking ahead further down the road, another question is whether Rodgers can throw for 400 career touchdown passes before he throws his 100th interception. No. 12 currently has thrown 351 TD passes versus 82 picks.

Well, to me, the answer is definitely yes, that he will reach 400 before he reaches 100. Why? Rodgers throws 4.28 touchdown passes versus every interception he throws. He is the only quarterback in NFL history to have that mark.

Which means that if he stays within that equation, he will throw the 49 TD passes to reach 400, while only tossing 11 picks, which will put him at 93 interceptions in his career.

Let’s compare those numbers to some other fantastic quarterbacks.

The quarterback who Rodgers replaced in Green Bay, Brett Favre, threw 442 touchdown passes as a Packer, but he also threw 286 interceptions during that time. That adds up to a 1.54/1 ratio.

In his entire career in the NFL, No. 4 threw 508 touchdown passes to 336 picks. That equals a 1.51/1 ratio.

Again, Rodgers is the only QB in NFL history with a ratio of four or better to one in terms of throwing touchdown passes versus picks. Very few have even reached a three to one ratio.

Tom Brady of the New England Patriots has thrown 528 career touchdown passes versus 175 interceptions. That is a ratio of 3.02/1.

Drew Brees of the New Orleans Saints has thrown 522 career touchdown passes versus 235 picks. That is a ratio of 2.22/1.

Peyton Manning threw 539 career touchdown passes versus 251 picks. That is a ratio of 2.15/1.

The only quarterback who comes somewhat close to Rodgers in both the touchdowns to interceptions ratio and career passer rating is Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks. The former Wisconsin Badger has thrown 211 touchdown passes versus 64 picks. That adds up to a ratio of 3.30/1.

Plus, Wilson is the only quarterback in NFL history besides Rodgers to have a career passer rating of over 100, as he sits at 101.3. Rodgers sits on the top of the NFL mountain with 103.2 rating, which is very close to his 2019 passer rating of 103.7.

Rodgers is a two-time NFL MVP, having won in both 2011 and 2014. Based on his play on Sunday against the Raiders, No. 12 has put himself in position to win his third.

Bart and Aaron

But that doesn’t compare to his real goal, which is to lead the Packers to the postseason for the first time since 2017 and for the ninth time in his career.

Rodgers is fifth in NFL postseason history with a career passer rating of 99.4. The all-time leader is Bart Starr, who has a 104.8 mark and who led the Packers to five NFL titles in seven years under head coach Vince Lombardi, including the first two Super Bowls.

Winning a NFL MVP award is a great honor for a quarterback (Starr was NFL MVP in 1966), but not as much as leading a team to a victory in a Super Bowl and being named the big game’s MVP. Starr did that twice, while Rodgers did it once.

Now that is the ultimate goal for Rodgers for this season and beyond.

4 thoughts on “Aaron Rodgers: What Comes First, 400 TD Passes or 100 Picks?

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