It’s now been six days since the Green Bay Packers lost 31-26 to the Tampa Bay Bucs in the 2020 NFC title game at Lambeau Field. During that time, questions have arisen about the status of quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his future with the Pack, as well as a number of other players who will be unrestricted free agents in March. Plus, because the 2021 NFL salary cap ($175 million) could be lower than it was in 2020 ($198.2 million), a number of players on the Packers could be cap casualties.
In addition, with the 2021 NFL draft not far down the road, general manager Brian Gutekunst and his scouting staff have to continue their work on identifying prospects who would be a good fit on the team.
Speaking of fitting on the team, we now know that both special teams coordinator Shawn Mennenga and defensive coordinator Mike Pettine won’t be part of the Packers in 2021, as head coach Matt LaFleur gave both their walking papers.
Let’s take a look now at these issues. Starting with Rodgers. No. 12 opened the door about his future with his comments to the media after the still painful loss to the Buccaneers.
When asked about how the roster of the Packers might look in 2021, Rodgers said, “Yeah, they are all special, for sure. I think this (team) as – much as any of them – I just found some really special friendships with Marcedes (Lewis), Davante (Adams); especially Tim (Boyle) and I have become really close over the years. Jamaal (Williams) – I love Jamaal. Aaron Jones. A lot of guys’ futures…that are uncertain. Myself included.”
Rodgers than paused and added this, “That’s what’s sad about it the most – getting this far. Obviously there was going to be an end to it at some point whether we make it past this one or not. But just the uncertainties and stuff and the finality of it all.”
When asked about where he goes from here, Rodgers said, “You know, it’s is a good question. I don’t know. I really don’t. There’s a lot of unknowns going into this offseason now, and…I’m going to have to take some time away for sure and clear my head and just kind of see what’s going on with everything. But it’s pretty tough right now, especially thinking about the guys that may or may not be here next year.
“There’s always change; that’s the only constant in this business,” Rodgers continued. “It’s really tough to get to this point; really, really tough. Especially with there only being in one bye week … the playoffs. It’s a grind just to get to this point.
“And that makes the finality of it all kind of hit you like a ton of bricks. That’s why it’s a gutting feeling in your stomach.”
Those remarks set off a bit of a firestorm in the NFL world. That being said, Rodgers has three years remaining on his contract with the Packers. Still, the Packers did draft quarterback Jordan Love with their first pick in the 2020 NFL draft.
President and CEO Mark Murphy of the Packers, who appeared on Monday on The 5th Quarter Show on WNFL in Green Bay, said this about the future of Rodgers in Titletown, “We’re not idiots,” Murphy said. “Aaron Rodgers will be back, he’s our leader.”
A couple of days later, Rodgers clarified his postgame remarks on The Pat McAfee Show. “I didn’t really see a whole lot until maybe yesterday,” Rodgers said. “Then I realized there were some things swirling around. I don’t feel like I said anything that I hadn’t said before. I said it the first time I talked to the media. More realization, I think, that ultimately my future is not necessarily in my control. I think that kind of hit me in the moment. I was thinking about Aaron Jones and Corey Linsley and other guys we have under contract. Guys that I don’t know what their future is going to be, myself included.
“Obviously after the season that I had and potentially winning MVP and we made it another good run, I don’t think that there is any reason I wouldn’t be back. But there’s not many absolutes, as you guys know, in this business. To make an absolute statement about something that is not an absolute, I didn’t do it. I guess that’s why everyone went kinda nuts.”
To add even more intrigue, per a league source, Rodgers wants a new contract, as he currently makes $33.5 million per year. In 2021, Rodgers will be starting the last three years of the contract he signed back in 2018. Rodgers is due to make $22.35 million in 2021, $25.5 million in 2022, and $25.5 million in 2023.
That means the probable 2020 NFL MVP will be lagging behind five other quarterbacks in terms of salary going into 2021. Those quarterbacks are Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ($45 million), Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson ($39 million), Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson ($35 million), and Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger ($34 million).
The bottom line is that a new deal could help both Rodgers and the Packers with the still unknown NFL salary cap in 2021. Rodgers could see his cap number of $37-plus million reduced with a new deal, which will help the team in keeping other free agents, like Jones or Linsley for instance. It would also tell Rodgers that the Packers are committed to him for the next few years.
My guess is that the Packers and Rodgers will do a new deal. That would definitely help the team in terms of free agency and managing the cap on the team. Currently, if the cap would be just $175 million per team in the NFL in 2021, the Packers would be almost $32 million over the cap based on the data put out by Spotrac.
However, back in December, Mike Florio of PFT said that there is optimism of the cap in 2021 being closer to $195 million. That would definitely help teams like the Packers, who are already over the cap heading into 2021.
Let’s say the Packers and Rodgers agree to a new deal and the NFL salary cap will be $195 million, opposed to $175 million. The Packers still have a number of unrestricted free agents going into 2021. The key ones to look at are Jones, Linsley, Jamaal Williams, Lane Taylor and Kevin King.
King didn’t help himself with his dreadful performance in the NFC title game, plus the guy always seems to be hurt. To me, he’s gone.
Taylor, missed almost the entire 2020 season with an ACL tear, plus had already taken a pay cut to remain with the team. I also believe Taylor will also not be with the team in 2021, as both Jon Runyan and Simon Stepaniak, both rookies in 2020, look to have nice futures in Green Bay in terms of playing guard.
The Packers would love to keep Williams. And if Jones, who made the 2021 Pro Bowl roster, leaves via free agency, I believe they will. Still, the possibility of keeping Jones by franchising him ($10,835,000) if a contract doesn’t work out, is a distinct possibility. The Packers did offer Jones a contract that would have put him in the top five of running backs in the NFL in terms of money ($12.5 million per year), but was lacking in a lot guaranteed money. That is why Jones decided to change agents.
No matter what, the top two backs on the Packers in 2021 will be either Jones or Williams and AJ Dillon.
In terms of Linsley, you know Rodgers wants his First-Team All-Pro center back. That will take some doing. But by re-doing a new contract with Rodgers and perhaps re-doing another deal with wide receiver Davante Adams, the Packers can add even more cap space to sign someone like Linsley.
There would most likely would have to be some cap casualties as well to keep players like Jones and Linsley. The two players who could be cap casualties are outside linebacker Preston Smith and inside linebacker Christian Kirksey. But cutting Smith, the Packers would save $8 million and by cutting Kirksey, the Packers would save an additional $5.6 million.
With the loss of King, the Packers would have to prioritize the cornerback position in the 2021 NFL draft. The Packers also need to find some additional talent at offensive tackle early in the draft, as left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss most of the 2021 season due to a ACL tear. Green Bay also needs more talent at wide receiver and more depth at running back, especially with either Jones or Williams leaving. I also see the Packers looking to improve their Front 7 on defense. Both on the line and at linebacker.
Looking at the coaching changes now, it appears that the Packers are going to make Maurice Drayton the special teams coordinator after firing Mennenga. Drayton assisted Mennenga in 2020 on special teams, but that doesn’t mean that he shared the same philosophy that Mennenga had in terms of the various schemes which were used in 2020. The Packers were ranked 29th in the NFL in the annual special teams ranking by Rick Gosselin.
In terms of who might replace Pettine as the new defensive coordinator, I’m sticking by the same choice I speculated about this time last year, when there was talk that Pettine might be replaced after last year’s NFC title game after his defense gave up 285 yards rushing to the San Francisco 49ers. The coach I was talking about then was the defensive coordinator of the Wisconsin Badgers, Jim Leonhard.
Leonhard is just 38, which is three years younger than LaFleur, but in four years running the defense of the Badgers, has shown himself to be one of the top coordinators in the country. For instance, in three of the four years that Leonhard has coordinated the defense of Wisconsin, the team has been in the top six in the country three times in terms of total defense.
In 2017, the Badgers were ranked 2nd in the country in total defense and were ranked 3rd in points allowed. In 2019, Wisconsin was ranked 6th in total defense and 10th in points allowed. And in 2020, the Badgers were ranked 5th in total defense and 10th in points allowed.
Leonhard was a three-time All-Big Ten and three-time All-American safety at Wisconsin from 2002 through 2004. My good buddy Kevin Cosgrove was the defensive coordinator for the Badgers for the first two years of Leonhard’s time at Wisconsin when he intercepted 18 passes. That sensational career in college football led to a 10-year career in the NFL with six different teams. In addition to that, Leonhard played under Pettine with the New York Jets from 2009 through 2011, then again with the Buffalo Bills in 2013 and then finally with the Cleveland Browns in 2014, which was Pettine’s first year as head coach.
In six of the 10 years that Leonhard played in the NFL, his head coach was Rex Ryan. Since he became a coordinator at Wisconsin, Leonhard has used a pro-style 3-4 defense which he learned under Ryan. Pettine uses the same scheme, but is not as aggressive as Leonhard is in utilizing the various traits of that defense.
Pettine, who first joined the staff of Mike McCarthy in 2018 before staying on LaFleur’s first staff last year, saw his defense improve to 9th in the NFL in total defense in 2020, after finishing 18th in both 2019 and 2018. That still wasn’t enough to bring him back in 2021, especially after the 39-yard touchdown pass his defense (in man coverage) allowed just before halftime in the NFC title game. Before Tom Brady threw that long pass to Scotty Miller, there were just eight seconds on the clock and the Bucs had no timeouts.
This is what Tony Dungy said about that play on Twitter, “That may be the worst defensive design I’ve ever seen with 8 seconds and no timeouts left,” Dungy wrote on Twitter. “Green Bay—I’m not sure how you play inside technique man to man and not just play zone and protect the sideline and the end zone? Amazing.”
Amazing to people like a Super Bowl-winning coach like Dungy. Agonizing to those in Packer Nation.
By making Leonhard the new defensive coordinator, the Packers can keep the same basic 3-4 scheme, but with some new looks, which will add more dynamic tactics (especially in the secondary), which have been used very successfully in college football under that watch of the Tony, Wisconsin native.
Time will tell what will happen in terms of who will be coming and going from the Packers in the near future, but it sure will be an interesting occurrence to watch.