When it comes to what the state of the Green Bay Packers is right now after another disappointing loss in the 2021 postseason, think of the planetary system the Earth is in. Everything revolves around the Sun. In terms of what the Packers may do this offseason going into the 2022 NFL season, everything revolves around quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Yes, after a very disappointing 13-10 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC Divisional Round game at Lambeau Field, the Packers now have to move forward and focus on the near future.
What’s important to note about that brutal loss to the 49ers is that every point scored by San Francisco were put on the board by their special teams units. The Packers were up 10-3 with 4:50 left in the game and were facing a 4th and 19 from their own 12, when Jordan Willis of the 49ers blocked a Corey Bojorquez punt. The block was recovered by rookie Talanoa Hufanga at the 6-yard line, who then scampered in for a touchdown. The ensuing extra point tied the score, and most of the 79,000-plus at Lambeau were in total shock.
In a very ironic twist, there was also 4:50 left in the game at Lambeau on December 31, 1967, when the Packers went on their legendary 68-yard drive in the “Ice Bowl” to win the game, as Bart Starr scored the winning touchdown on his iconic quarterback sneak.
There would be no heroics like that for the Packers in the game against the Niners.
A number of people of folks in the media have called out the performance of Rodgers in the loss to the 49ers. “I didn’t have a great night tonight,” Rodgers said, as he addressed the media after the game. Rodgers talked about how he read things wrong at times (like missing a wide-open Allen Lazard on his last throw of the game and instead throwing a deep pass to double covered Davante Adams) and also how the 49ers limited the quick passing game that worked in Green Bay’s Week 3 win at San Francisco. “I definitely take my fair share of blame.”
It’s true that Rodgers did not have his best game. But he also didn’t soil the bed, like many in the media would have you believe. Rodgers was sacked five times in the game, which was the most times No. 12 had been sacked all year. In fact, the most Rodgers had been sacked in a game in 2021 was three times. Against the 49ers at Lambeau, more often than not, Rodgers was under pressure, which made the reads of Rodgers a quick exercise.
Still, the Green Bay offense should have been better, especially given how well the defense played against San Francisco (212 total yards and six points allowed). But it was another phase of the game which cost the Packers a chance to move on to the NFC title game. It was clear for all to see. The not-so-special teams of the Packers coached by Maurice Drayton.
The Packers went into the postseason knowing that they were ranked No. 32 in special teams play in the regular season, which has been done annually by one of the best NFL writers ever, Rick Gosselin, since the 1980s. That’s dead-last in the NFL in case you were wondering. That dismal ranking came back to bite the Packers in the behind in a big way against the Niners.
So, a lot of things need to be cleared up this offseason. Resolving the contract status of both Rodgers and Adams one way or the other to be sure, as well as fixing the salary cap issue. But the biggest red flag on the Packers is their subpar special teams play. That has to be a huge priority for the team. Since Matt LaFleur became head coach in 2019, the Packers have been ranked 26th (2019), 29th (2020) and 32nd (2021) by Gosselin. Even with that, the Packers won 13 games in each of those seasons.
That tells you how well Rodgers has played over these past three seasons, plus he is about to win his second straight NFL MVP award. Since 2019, in the regular season, Rodgers has thrown 111 touchdown passes versus just 13 interceptions for 12,416 yards. That adds up to a cumulative passer rating of 109.6.
But what about the play of Rodgers in the postseason, as the Packers are just 2-3 over the past three years? Well, Rodgers has thrown nine touchdown passes versus three interceptions for 1,436 yards. That adds up to a cumulative passer rating of 100.4. As you can see, Rodgers did not flame out and he actually played very well for the most part.
Football is a team sport. Ask Tom Brady why he has won seven Super Bowls. Yes, he has played great himself in most of those wins, but in almost every case in which “Tom Terrific” took home a Vince Lombardi Trophy, his teams had exceptional defenses, as well as stellar special teams play.
In terms of Rodgers and his immediate future, I see two options. I do not see Rodgers retiring. The soon to be four-time NFL MVP will either be back with the Packers in 2022 and beyond or with another team next season. The decision about which scenario takes place is up to Rodgers.
The Packers want him back. LaFleur said this in his season-ending press conference on Monday. “I just want to do everything in our power to try to get him back here and making sure he’s comfortable with the direction of our football team, and confident that we can continue to have success here and try to find a way to get us kind of over that hump.”
LaFleur also added this about Rodgers. “This guy has done so much for such a long period of time for this organization, for this city, for this team. And so, I want to be respectful of his process. Whatever he needs to go through to make the best decision for himself, and certainly we would love for him to be a Packer and be a Packer to the day he decides to retire.”
But LaFleur also knows some difficult options lie ahead for the Packers. “There’s ways to move money and to make sure that we get the bulk of our key contributors back. Are there absolutely going to be some tough decisions? No doubt about it. But I’m really confident in Russ’ [Russ Ball’s] ability and Gutey’s ability and us collectively to figure out a way to do this thing.”
Speaking of Gutey, aka general manager Brian Gutekunst of the Packers, his relationship with Rodgers has definitely gotten better this season.
Take it from Rodgers himself, as he talked about that relationship on “The Pat McAfee Show” on Tuesday. “I feel like I’m at a place relationally with the Packers, in a really good place, especially with Brian,” Rodgers said. “We have a friendship and trust has grown where it would be a simple conversation, and whatever is coming out of that conversation is moving forward. There’s not going to be any weird standoff war of silence or anything. Brian and I have had good conversations throughout the year. When it comes time to make a decision, we’ll have a conversation and that will be that.”
If Rodgers does indeed want to come back, the biggest obstacle in getting that done is his current contract and the salary cap. The Packers are currently about $48 million over the cap now and need to be down to the expected 2022 salary cap number of $208.2 million by March 16th.
I’ve been reading some estimates of what some agents feel Rodgers would be offered to entice his stay in Green Bay. Most feel that his salary would be in the range of $40 to $45 million, which could be done with a five-year deal for around $226 million, which would include a potential signing bonus of $80 million, which would be the largest signing bonus in NFL history. A deal like that would drop the current cap number of Rodgers, which is currently $46 million, down to around $36 million.
So, even with that deal, much more work needs to be done, which includes re-signing Adams to a new deal, preferably not using the franchise tag. Adams is slated to become a free agent in March.
LaFleur also addressed that issue.
“We kind of talked everything through and, again, another guy that we’re hopeful that we can come to an agreement with,” LaFleur said, via Nick Shook of NFL.com. “Obviously, he’s done so much on the field, but I think it’s still the stuff that you all don’t get to see within the meeting room, with how he talks to his teammates, with how he sets a standard for everybody, there’s a reason he was voted a captain, rightfully so. He earned that.
“I told him that he’s definitely earned the respect of not only his teammates but all of his coaches, as well, and I think everybody in this organization. Just his ability to compartmentalize his own situation and go out there and compete at the level he did each and every week, putting himself out there, obviously, in a contract year and just bringing it and playing at the highest of levels. He’s the best receiver in the league.”
If the Packers do their due diligence and were able to bring back Rodgers and Adams back for the next several years, while it would bring down the cap number substantially, there is more that the team needs to do to reduce the cap number.
Things like converting salaries into signing bonuses with players like David Bakhtiari, Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Kenny Clark and Adrian Amos. Those moves could take the cap number of the Packers down another $30 million or so.
But there will still be some tough cuts that may need to be made on the roster, unless certain players will reduce their current salary significantly or convert their salaries into signing bonuses. Players like Mason Crosby ($2,250,000), Randall Cobb ($7,875,000), Billy Turner ($5,450,000) and Dean Lowry ($5,000,0000).
And even with all that, re-signing players (like De’Vondre Campbell, Rasul Douglas, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan) who will be free agents in March would be very difficult.
Most of that would be a moot point if Rodgers tells the Packers that he wants to move on. If that’s the case, trading Rodgers to one of two teams in the AFC West would the preferable option. Those two teams would be the Denver Broncos or the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Broncos now have Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach. Hackett was also the offensive coordinator for the Packers the past three seasons and he and Rodgers have a very tight relationship. The Broncos also have plenty of cap room to bring on a big cap hit like Rodgers, plus have multiple draft picks to offer the Packers in exchange for Rodgers.
The Broncos have five draft picks in the first three rounds, which includes the No. 9 pick in Round 1, plus has two second-round picks and two third-round picks. In addition, Denver has several late round picks which they could trade to the Packers, which would mean low-cost additions to the Green Bay roster. Plus, the Broncos could add young quarterback Drew Lock in the deal and let him compete with Jordan Love to see who will be the starter in Green Bay in 2022.
Lock has been with the Broncos for three years now and is still just 25 years old. Lock has not set the NFL world on fire, but he has shown flashes of being someone who could be successful in the NFL. Denver drafted Lock in Round 2 in the 2019 NFL draft out of Missouri.
While Lock’s future is similar to that of Love’s, as in there are still a number of questions of whether they will be top notch starting quarterbacks in the NFL, there is no question that Derek Carr of the Raiders has already proven that he can be successful. In eight years with the Raiders, Carr has thrown 193 touchdown passes versus 85 interceptions for 31,700 yards. That adds up to a passer rating of 92.4.
Trading Rodgers to the Raiders for Carr and some other assets (high draft picks etc.) would bring value for sure. For one, Carr’s relationship with Adams (they played together at Fresno State together) would be a huge benefit to the Packers. Owner Mark Davis (son of Al) is trying to make a big splash in “Sin City” after two years there and adding Rodgers to the team would be like the ultimate cannonball.
Bottom line, the ball is in the court of Rodgers. If Aaron wants to stay in Green Bay where he has been for the past 17 years, then the Packers will do what they need to do to make that happen. If Aaron wants to move on, the Packers can facilitate that as well, with Denver or Las Vegas being the best options for everyone involved.
As I wrote earlier, Rodgers is like the Sun with the Packers, all of their future decisions revolve around what he wants to do. We will find out soon enough what those decisions will be.